A new 'variant of concern' (μ)
The news from South Africa is that we have a new, potentially very dangerous, variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus with multiple mutations (or as Creationists will put it, multiple design improvements), including significant changes to the spike proteins against which the current vaccines produce antibodies.
The characteristics of the new variant, currently designated 8.1.1.529 and which will probably be designated by the WHO with the Greek letter μ (mu) tomorrow, are:
Just spotted: very small cluster of variant associated with Southern Africa with very long branch length and really awful Spike mutation profile including RBD - K417N, N440K, G446S, S477N, T478K, E484A, Q493K, G496S, Q498R, N501Y, Y505Hhttps://t.co/kgA9c1hKDa
— Tom Peacock (@PeacockFlu) November 23, 2021
Update on South African situation from @Tuliodna (Who is absolutely the best person to follow for updates on this) - bottom line is B.1.1.529 may already be quite widespread in SA.https://t.co/T7yE3MptZO
— Tom Peacock (@PeacockFlu) November 25, 2021
Summary of new variant
- New variant detected in South Africa (lineage 8.1.1.529) with high number of mutations, which are concerning for predicted immune evasion and transmissibility
- B-1.1.529 genomes from samples collected 12-20 Nov from Gauteng, SA (n=77), Botswana (n=4) and Hong Kong (n=l, traveler from SA)
- 8.1-1.529 can be detected by one particular PCR assay (before whole genome sequencing) — this will help us to track and understand spread
- Early signs from diagnostic laboratories that 8.1.1.529 has rapidly increased in Gauteng and may already be present in most provinces
- We can make some predictions about the impact of mutations in this variant, but full significance uncertain and the vaccines remain the critical tool to protect us against severe disease
This variant did surprise us, it has a big jump on evolution [and] many more mutations that we expected.
The evidence of its rapid increase in numbers in Gauteng province, South Africa, indicating a higher transmissibility, coupled with the spike protein changes which may reduce the effectiveness of the current vaccines, is the reason for the alarm in epidemiological circles.Prof Tulio de Oliveira
Director of the Centre for Epidemic Response and Innovation
South Africa
Director of the Centre for Epidemic Response and Innovation
South Africa
Compared to the original type, against which the vaccines were developed, the B.1.1.529 (μ) has 50 changes, 30 of which are in the spike proteins on its surface. These proteins are the key to how the virus gains access to the cell and the antibodies bind to these proteins similar in principle to the way a key fits into a lock, rendering them non-functional. If the antibodies can't 'recognise' these proteins, they can't bind to them.
Experts believe this new variety could have originated in a single individual who was unable to beat the virus. With a single infected patient being able to produce maybe a trillion new virus particles, it is to be expected that these variants will continue to arise in the population, no matter how low the probability. In South Africa the vaccine take-up has been very low, with only about 24% of the population now double vaccinated. There are also a large number of recovered people who will now have some natural immunity, making it hard to estimate the number of unprotected individuals in the population.
They give us concern this virus might have enhanced transmissibility, enhanced ability to spread from person to person, but might also be able to get around parts of the immune system.
In evolutionary terms, each variant is in competition with the others for the human resource in which to replicate, so if one can improve its transmissibility, even only marginally, it can rapidly replace the other variants, as we saw when the δ variant arose in 2021, quickly replacing the α variant which had itself replaced the original type by late 2020.Prof Richard Lessells
University of KwaZulu-Natal
South Africa
University of KwaZulu-Natal
South Africa
In intelligent [sic] design terms, of course, the omniscient designer behind these variants, who knows exactly what these new designs will do, is trying to find better ways to overcome the growing resistance in the human population produced by the vaccines, so that its nasty little creation can continue to cause death and suffering and ruin economies across the world.
If an ID advocate can explain this differently, whilst still subscribing to the belief that this alleged designer is the omniscient god of the Bible and Qur'an, who therefore knows exactly what its designs will do, so designs them for that very purpose, and nothing else, then I have yet to see it.
So far all we have is a few lame attempts to absolve their god of any responsibility for its actions by declaring these viruses as either a divine retribution, harming only those who deserve it in some way (usually for disagreeing with the fundamentalist making that claim) or some unexplained result of 'sin', which somehow has the same design capability as their god. A god who, aparently, although omni-benevolent and omnipotent, is either unaware that it is happening or unconcerned for our welfare, or powerless to stop it.
[Update] The WHO have designated this variant with the Greek letter ο (omicron), not μ (mu) as expected.
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