Abiogenesis, like the conditions that produced the Big Bang, is one of creationism's favourite gaps in which they try to fit their ever-shrinking little god and play their false dichotomy fallacy - if science can't explain it, "God did it!".
That ploy depends for its success of a couple of things, not the least of which are scientific illiteracy and cultural chauvinism of their target dupes. Creationists, while telling their targets that science can't explain how abiogenesis occurred, then pretend they know anyway and have calculated the probability of it. Of course, without knowing the precise conditions and chain of events, it is impossible to do that calculation, but nevertheless, creationist frauds will confidently proclaim it to be infinitesimally small.
However, if the precise mechanism were known, and the conditions could be replicated (temperature, pressure, catalysts, chemicals and time) the mechanism would not be impossible, it would be inevitable (i.e., certainty) since it is a basic principle of chemistry that if the conditions are right, a reaction will occur. No ifs or buts, it will occur since chemical reactions are not governed by laws of probability but by laws of physics. No chemist has ever needed to set up ten thousand test tubes to ensure at least one will produce the expected result. He/she would get ten thousand identical results.
But now, as scientists improve their ability to detect and examine the atmosphere of distant exoplanets orbiting other suns in the galaxy, so they are improving their ability to detect the inevitable signs of life on those planets and many people think it is only a matter of time before we have strong evidence of life elsewhere in the universe.
That this is shaping up to give creationists a massive migraine can be gauged by the ridiculous proclamation by Ken Ham, as a prelude to the hysterical denialism that will inevitably result in the creationist cult when this evidence is found. Ham told his dupes that there could not possibly be life on another planet because Jeus only lived on Earth, so they won't have had a chance to be 'saved' and God wouldn't create life that can't be save by Jesus.
Presumably, Ham only regards humans as 'life' since I know of no other life form on Earth that goes to church hoping to be saved by Jesus, and maybe Ham forgot that there were humans on Earth hundreds of thousands of years before anyone thought of Jesus. If Ham's childlike theology were true - that all life needs to be saved by Jesus - what was God thinking of when he created it and left it for thousands of years before providing it with the mechanism for salvation, then only told a small Middle Eastern Tribe about it so it took almost 2,000 years before everyone knew about it? What happened to those people who, as far as knowledge of Jesus is concerned, might as well have been living on another planet?
But, of course, abiogenesis is not about creating human life but about creating living organisms. In that respect, bacteria and archaea are 'life' just as much so as are humans, and we only need to discover a planet with the simplest of self-replicating organism on it to know that abiogenesis occurred there too. The conditions were right, so it happened. Suddenly the probability of life forming begins to look more like the certainty chemistry and physics tell us it is, in the right conditions.
And creationist claims that the probability of Earth existing in the 'Goldilocks zone' was also infinitesimally small, and yet we have already found several exoplanets occupying a 'Goldilocks Zone' around their sun, where water can exist as both gas and liquid, so again the 'Goldilocks' fallacy is disintegrating under the spotlight of science and another gap is shrinking as science evicts creationism's small god from it.
Nor is it just creationists who must be dreading the discovery of life on another planet; since the entire bases of the Abrahamic religions is that God created Earth and indeed the entire universe, as somewhere for his special creation, humans, to live for the sole purpose of worshipping him, and everything else is simply there to aid us in that endeavour. That belief collapses the moment life is discovered elsewhere in the universe and the descent of man by a natural process from the products of abiogenesis looks by far the more likely explanation for our existence, with the same 'purpose' that would be assigned to living organisms on another planet.
The dreadful news for creationists comes from NASA in a press release, concerning the findings of the Webb Space Telescope (WST) and a University of Cambridge press release:
A new investigation with NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope into K2-18 b, an exoplanet 8.6 times as massive as Earth, has revealed the presence of carbon-bearing molecules including methane and carbon dioxide. Webb’s discovery adds to recent studies suggesting that K2-18 b could be a Hycean exoplanet, one which has the potential to possess a hydrogen-rich atmosphere and a water ocean-covered surface.The Webb Space telescope is not only showing us that the Universe is far older than the writers of Genesis thought, it is also much larger than they could possibly have guessed from their perspective which saw the sky as a dome with stars stuck to it, held up by pillars. It is also showing us that the biblical creation myth is a simplistic attempt to explain the presence of life on Earth in what they thought was a magical, geocentric universe, in which 'life' was a magical substance or force of some sort that could only come from a magic sky wizard.
The first insight into the atmospheric properties of this habitable-zone exoplanet came from observations with NASA’s Hubble Space Telescope, which prompted further studies that have since changed our understanding of the system.
K2-18 b orbits the cool dwarf star K2-18 in the habitable zone and lies 120 light-years from Earth in the constellation Leo. Exoplanets such as K2-18 b, which have sizes between those of Earth and Neptune, are unlike anything in our solar system. This lack of equivalent nearby planets means that these ‘sub-Neptunes’ are poorly understood, and the nature of their atmospheres is a matter of active debate among astronomers.
The suggestion that the sub-Neptune K2-18 b could be a Hycean exoplanet is intriguing, as some astronomers believe that these worlds are promising environments to search for evidence for life on exoplanets.
The abundance of methane and carbon dioxide, and shortage of ammonia, support the hypothesis that there may be a water ocean underneath a hydrogen-rich atmosphere in K2-18 b. These initial Webb observations also provided a possible detection of a molecule called dimethyl sulfide (DMS). On Earth, this is only produced by life. The bulk of the DMS in Earth’s atmosphere is emitted from phytoplankton in marine environments.Our findings underscore the importance of considering diverse habitable environments in the search for life elsewhere. Traditionally, the search for life on exoplanets has focused primarily on smaller rocky planets, but the larger Hycean worlds are significantly more conducive to atmospheric observations.
Nikku Madhusudhan, lead author
Institute of Astronomy
University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UKSpectra of K2-18 b, obtained with Webb’s NIRISS (Near-Infrared Imager and Slitless Spectrograph) and NIRSpec (Near-Infrared Spectrograph), display an abundance of methane and carbon dioxide in the exoplanet’s atmosphere, as well as a possible detection of a molecule called dimethyl sulfide (DMS). The detection of methane and carbon dioxide, and shortage of ammonia, support the hypothesis that there may be a water ocean underneath a hydrogen-rich atmosphere in K2-18 b. K2-18 b, 8.6 times as massive as Earth, orbits the cool dwarf star K2-18 in the habitable zone and lies 120 light-years from Earth.Credits: Illustration: NASA, CSA, ESA, R. Crawford (STScI), J. Olmsted (STScI), Science: N. Madhusudhan (Cambridge University)While K2-18 b lies in the habitable zone, and is now known to harbor carbon-bearing molecules, this does not necessarily mean that the planet can support life. The planet's large size — with a radius 2.6 times the radius of Earth — means that the planet’s interior likely contains a large mantle of high-pressure ice, like Neptune, but with a thinner hydrogen-rich atmosphere and an ocean surface. Hycean worlds are predicted to have oceans of water. However, it is also possible that the ocean is too hot to be habitable or be liquid.The inference of DMS is less robust and requires further validation.
Nikku Madhusudhan
Characterizing the atmospheres of exoplanets like K2‑18 b — meaning identifying their gases and physical conditions — is a very active area in astronomy. However, these planets are outshone — literally — by the glare of their much larger parent stars, which makes exploring exoplanet atmospheres particularly challenging.Although this kind of planet does not exist in our solar system, sub-Neptunes are the most common type of planet known so far in the galaxy. We have obtained the most detailed spectrum of a habitable-zone sub-Neptune to date, and this allowed us to work out the molecules that exist in its atmosphere.
Subhajit Sarkar, co-author
School of Physics and Astronomy
Cardiff University, Cardiff, UK.
This result was only possible because of the extended wavelength range and unprecedented sensitivity of Webb, which enabled robust detection of spectral features with just two transits. For comparison, one transit observation with Webb provided comparable precision to eight observations with Hubble conducted over a few years and in a relatively narrow wavelength range.
Nikku Madhusudhan.The team sidestepped this challenge by analyzing light from K2-18 b's parent star as it passed through the exoplanet's atmosphere. K2-18 b is a transiting exoplanet, meaning that we can detect a drop in brightness as it passes across the face of its host star. This is how the exoplanet was first discovered in 2015 with NASA’s K2 mission. This means that during transits a tiny fraction of starlight will pass through the exoplanet's atmosphere before reaching telescopes like Webb. The starlight's passage through the exoplanet atmosphere leaves traces that astronomers can piece together to determine the gases of the exoplanet's atmosphere.These results are the product of just two observations of K2-18 b, with many more on the way. This means our work here is but an early demonstration of what Webb can observe in habitable-zone exoplanets.
Savvas Constantinou, co-author
Institute of Astronomy
University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK University of Cambridge, UK.
The team’s results were accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal Letters.
The team now intends to conduct follow-up research with the telescope's MIRI (Mid-Infrared Instrument) spectrograph that they hope will further validate their findings and provide new insights into the environmental conditions on K2-18 b.Our ultimate goal is the identification of life on a habitable exoplanet, which would transform our understanding of our place in the universe. Our findings are a promising step towards a deeper understanding of Hycean worlds in this quest.
Nikku Madhusudhan.
The reality is that 'life' arises when the conditions are right because it is nothing more magical than the results of chemistry and physics, in which no gods are required.
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