Rosa Rubicondior: Creationism Refuted - The Cosmos Is Not Fine-Tuned For Life

Friday, 10 October 2025

Creationism Refuted - The Cosmos Is Not Fine-Tuned For Life

An artist’s impression of a red supergiant star in the final year of its life emitting a tumultuous cloud of gas.

W.M. Keck Observatory/Adam Makarenko.

Astronomers capture red supergiant’s death throes - Northwestern Now

Although now rather old news, the observation of the death of a red supergiant star in 20222 has just been reported in Science Daily, prompting me to look again at the 'fine-tuned universe' argument beloved by (usually American) creationists, and often repeated uncritically with little or no understanding of the subject.

Briefly, the argument is that the universe is so “finely tuned” that changing even a single parameter by the smallest amount would make life impossible. The superficiality of this argument is revealed by the fact that many of the same individuals also claim that radiometric dating is unreliable because radioactive decay rates were supposedly much higher in the past. Yet, if that were true, their fine-tuning claim would collapse entirely: accelerated decay would have released so much energy that not only would life have been impossible, but atoms themselves could not have formed at the time they claim their deity magically created everything.

The fine-tuning argument collapses almost immediately when creationists are asked to explain any of the supposed parameters in detail. Specifically, they cannot show the theoretical range of values that parameter could take, nor can they demonstrate how the probability of its current value was calculated without access to multiple universes where it differs. In practice, no such calculation is ever performed; instead, a vanishingly small probability is simply asserted without evidence. Yet if no other values are actually possible, then the probability of the parameter having its current value is not small at all — it is certain (i.e. 1).

The argument also runs aground on the so-called “anthropic principle”, which states, in essence, that we could not be here discussing these questions in a universe where intelligent life was impossible. The mere fact that we exist implies that we inhabit a universe in which the conditions for intelligent life are met. In other words, our existence is not evidence of fine-tuning — it is a logical necessity.

Even more damaging to creationism is the clear implication in the argument that their supposed creator god can only work within the narrow constraints of a fine-tuned universe, which argues against an omnipotent god operating outside space and time and instead implies a god subject to the constraints of natural forces. In fact, of course, the 'fine-tuned universe' argument is an argument against an omnipotent god and for the supremacy of natural, undirected forces.

The fine-tuning argument is also profoundly parochial, assuming that the conditions of a small Bible Belt town are representative of the entire cosmos — and that “life” specifically means human life. In reality, vast regions of Earth are already hostile to anything other than highly specialised organisms. Even human survival across much of the planet depends on clothing, shelter, or artificial access to potable water.

Beyond the narrow layer of Earth’s atmosphere, life as we know it becomes even more implausible. The universe is overwhelmingly hostile: it is a place of searing heat and extreme cold, ionising radiation, and the relentless collapse of gas clouds into stars, which themselves eventually collapse further, explode as supernovae, or form black holes from which nothing escapes.

One such stellar death throe was directly observed a few years ago by astronomers led by researchers at Northwestern University and University of California, Berkeley. They monitored a red supergiant through its final 130 days, culminating in its detonation as a supernova. Had such an event occurred with our own Sun, the inner planets would have been engulfed, and any trace of life or civilisation vapourised.

An artist's rendition of a red supergiant star transitioning into a Type II supernova, emitting a violent eruption of radiation and gas on its dying breath before collapsing and exploding.

W.M. Keck Observatory/Adam Makarenko.

Supernova SN 2020tlf — The Death of a Red Supergiant. Basic Facts

Name: SN 2020tlf
Type: Type II (core-collapse) supernova
Host Galaxy: NGC 5731
Distance: ~120 million light years
Progenitor: Red supergiant (~10–12 M_⊙)
Discovery: 6 September 2020

Timeline of Events
Time (approx.) Event Notes

~130 days before explosion Brightening detected Optical precursors observed in multiple bands — rare direct evidence of a dying red supergiant.

Final weeks Intense mass loss Star expelled material, creating a dense shell of circumstellar matter (CSM).

Explosion (Sept 2020) Core collapse Detected rapidly by telescopes; spectrum taken with Keck LRIS.

Hours–days after Shock–CSM interaction Produced narrow emission lines — confirming the presence of surrounding material.

2021–2022 Analysis and publication First normal Type II SN observed during its pre-explosion phase.

2025 Re-analysis Refined precursor data, confirming unusual activity but constraining early photometry.

Scientific Importance

First direct observation of a red supergiant’s death throes before a standard Type II explosion.
Showed that such stars can be far more active shortly before core collapse than previously thought.
Provided new insights into how late-stage mass loss affects supernova brightness and spectra.
Demonstrated the power of continuous sky surveys in catching these rare events in real time.

Key Instruments & Observatories

W. M. Keck Observatory – obtained early spectrum.
University of California, Berkeley & Northwestern University – led the research.
Follow-up analyses published in the Astrophysical Journal (January 2022) and updated in 2025.

Side note:
Had an event like SN 2020tlf occurred in our Solar System, the inner planets — including Earth — would have been engulfed or vaporised, erasing all traces of life and civilisation - the ultimate fate of our planet in due course.

Timeline of Events
Time (approx.)	Event	Notes
~130 days before explosion	Brightening detected	Optical precursors observed in multiple bands — rare direct evidence of a dying red supergiant.
Final weeks	Intense mass loss	Star expelled material, creating a dense shell of circumstellar matter (CSM).
Explosion (Sept 2020)	Core collapse	Detected rapidly by telescopes; spectrum taken with Keck LRIS.
Hours–days after	Shock–CSM interaction	Produced narrow emission lines — confirming the presence of surrounding material.
2021–2022	Analysis and publication	First normal Type II SN observed during its pre-explosion phase.
2025	Re-analysis	Refined precursor data, confirming unusual activity but constraining early photometry.

Their findings were published in January 2022 in the Astrophysical Journal and announced in a Northwestern University news release by Amanda Morris.

Astronomers capture red supergiant’s death throes
‘For the first time, we watched a red supergiant star explode,’ researcher says
For the first time ever, astronomers have imaged in real time the dramatic end to a red supergiant’s life — watching the massive star’s rapid self-destruction and final death throes before collapsing into a type II supernova.

Led by researchers at Northwestern University and the University of California, Berkeley (UC Berkeley), the team observed the red supergiant during its last 130 days leading up to its deadly detonation.

The discovery defies previous ideas of how red supergiant stars evolve right before exploding. Earlier observations showed that red supergiants were relatively quiescent before their deaths — with no evidence of violent eruptions or luminous emissions. The new observations, however, detected bright radiation from a red supergiant in the final year before exploding. This suggests at least some of these stars must undergo significant changes in their internal structure, which then result in the tumultuous ejection of gas moments before they collapse.

This is a breakthrough in our understanding of what massive stars do moments before they die. Direct detection of pre-supernova activity in a red supergiant star has never been observed before in an ordinary type II supernova. For the first time, we watched a red supergiant star explode.

Wynn Jacobson-Galán, lead author
Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics
University of California, Berkeley, USA.

The discovery was published today (Jan. 6 [2022]) in The Astrophysical Journal.

Although the work was conducted at Northwestern, where Jacobson-Galán was a National Science Foundation (NSF) Graduate Research Fellow, he has since moved to UC Berkeley. Northwestern co-authors include Deanne Coppejans, Charlie Kilpatrick, Giacomo Terreran, Peter Blanchard and Lindsay DeMarchi, who are all members of Northwestern’s Center for Interdisciplinary and Exploratory Research in Astrophysics (CIERA).

The University of Hawaiʻi Institute for AstronomyPan-STARRS on Haleakalā, Maui, first detected the doomed massive star in summer 2020 via the huge amount of light radiating from the red supergiant. A few months later, in fall of 2020, a supernova lit the sky.

The team quickly captured the powerful flash and obtained the very first spectrum of the energetic explosion, named supernova 2020tlf (SN 2020tlf) using the W.M. Keck Observatory’s Low Resolution Imaging Spectrometer on Maunakea, Hawaiʻi. The data showed direct evidence of dense circumstellar material surrounding the star at the time of explosion, likely the same gas that Pan-STARRS had imaged the red supergiant star violently ejecting earlier in the summer.

It’s like watching a ticking time bomb. We’ve never confirmed such violent activity in a dying red supergiant star where we see it produce such a luminous emission, then collapse and combust, until now.

Adjunct Associate Professor Raffaella Margutti, co-author
Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics
University of California, Berkeley, USA.

The team continued to monitor SN 2020tlf after the explosion. Based on data obtained from Keck Observatory’s Deep Imaging and Multi-Object Spectrograph and Near Infrared Echellette Spectrograph, the researchers determined SN 2020tlf’s progenitor red supergiant star — located in the NGC 5731 galaxy about 120 million light-years away from Earth — was 10 times more massive than the sun.

Publication:
W. V. Jacobson-Galán et al 2022
Final Moments. I. Precursor Emission, Envelope Inflation, and Enhanced Mass Loss Preceding the Luminous Type II Supernova 2020tlf
ApJ 924 15

Abstract
We present panchromatic observations and modeling of supernova (SN) 2020tlf, the first normal Type II-P/L SN with confirmed precursor emission, as detected by the Young Supernova Experiment transient survey. Pre-SN activity was detected in riz-bands at −130 days and persisted at relatively constant flux until first light. Soon after discovery, “flash” spectroscopy of SN 2020tlf revealed narrow, symmetric emission lines that resulted from the photoionization of circumstellar material (CSM) shed in progenitor mass-loss episodes before explosion. Surprisingly, this novel display of pre-SN emission and associated mass loss occurred in a red supergiant (RSG) progenitor with zero-age main-sequence mass of only 10–12 M_⊙, as inferred from nebular spectra. Modeling of the light curve and multi-epoch spectra with the non-LTE radiative-transfer code CMFGEN and radiation-hydrodynamical code HERACLES suggests a dense CSM limited to r ≈ 10¹⁵ cm, and mass-loss rate of 10⁻² M_⊙ yr−¹. The luminous light-curve plateau and persistent blue excess indicates an extended progenitor, compatible with an RSG model with R_⋆ = 1100 R_⊙. Limits on the shock-powered X-ray and radio luminosity are consistent with model conclusions and suggest a CSM density of ρ < 2 × 10⁻¹⁶ g cm⁻³ for distances from the progenitor star of r ≈ 5 × 10¹⁵ cm, as well as a mass-loss rate of \(\small M \lt 1.3\times 10^{-5}\, M_{\odot }\,\text{yr}^{-1}\) at larger distances. A promising power source for the observed precursor emission is the ejection of stellar material following energy disposition into the stellar envelope as a result of gravity waves emitted during either neon/oxygen burning or a nuclear flash from silicon combustion.

1. Introduction
The behavior of massive stars in their final years of evolution is almost entirely unconstrained. However, we can probe these terminal phases of stellar evolution prior to the core-collapse of massive stars >8 M_⊙ by understanding the composition and origin of the high-density, circumstellar material (CSM) surrounding these stars at the time of explosion (Smith 2014). This CSM can be comprised of primordial stellar material or elements synthesized during different stages of nuclear burning, and is enriched as the progenitor star loses mass via wind and violent outbursts (Smith 2014 and references therein).

Early-time optical observations of young (t < 10 days since shock breakout; SBO) Type II supernovae (SNe II) are one such probe of the final stages of stellar evolution. In the era of all-sky transient surveys, rapid (“flash”) spectroscopic observations have become a powerful tool for understanding the very nearby circumstellar environment of pre-SN progenitor systems in the final days to months before explosion (e.g., Gal-Yam et al. 2014.1; Groh 2014.2; Khazov et al. 2016; Bruch et al. 2021). Obtaining spectra of young SNe II in the hours to days following SBO allows us to identify prominent emission lines in very early-time SN spectra that result from the recombination of unshocked, photoionized CSM. However, because the recombination timescale of ionized H-rich CSM is inversely related to the number density of free electrons \(\small t_{\text{rec}}\propto n_e^{-1}\) (Osterbrock & Ferland 2006), “flash” ionization from radiation associated with SBO is not responsible for the persistence of these narrow (v_w ≲ 500 km s⁻¹), CSM-derived spectral features at ≳1 day after explosion (e.g., t_rec ≤ a few hours for H-rich gas with T ≈ 10⁵–10⁶ K and n_e ≥ 10⁸ cm⁻³). The conversion of shock kinetic energy into high-energy radiation as it advances into the CSM provides a persistent source of ionizing photons that keep the CSM ionized for significantly longer timescales (e.g., ≫ t_rec). The prominent, rapidly fading emission lines in the photoionization spectra of young SNe II are direct evidence of dense and confined CSM surrounding the progenitor star, comprising elements ejected during episodes of enhanced mass loss days to months before explosion. The strength/brightness of these features is derived from the CSM density and chemical abundances at the time of explosion. This is a direct tracer of the progenitor’s chemical composition (CNO abundances specifically) and recent mass loss at small distances r < 10¹⁵ cm, as well as an indirect probe of progenitor identity.

Combining early-time spectroscopy with non-local thermal equilibrium (non-LTE) radiative-transfer modeling codes such as CMFGEN (Hillier & Miller 1998) has been a successful tool in constraining the progenitor systems responsible for a growing number of SNe that undergo a relatively flat (Type II-P) or linear (Type II-L) fading during the photospheric phase in their optical light-curve evolution. The latter may be the result of massive star progenitors that have lost more of their H-rich envelope in episodes of enhanced mass loss (Hillier & Dessart 2019). For such objects, radiative-transfer modeling indicates that a dense (\(\small M = 10^{-4}\mbox{--}10^{-2}\, M_{\odot}\ \text{yr}^{−1}; v_w ∼ 100–200\ \text{km}\ \text{s}^{−1}\)) and compact (r ≲ 10¹⁵ cm) CSM is present in order to produce the observed spectral profiles of high-ionization species such as He II, N III, C III/IV, or O UV/V in the early-time SNe II spectra (Shivvers et al. 2015; Dessart et al. 2016.1, 2017; Terreran et al. 2016.2, 2021.1; Yaron et al. 2017.1; Boian & Groh 2020; Tartaglia et al. 2021.2). However, mass-loss rates derived from SN spectral modeling are much larger than the generally inferred steady-state mass-loss rates (e.g., ≲10⁻⁶ M_⊙ yr⁻¹; Beasor et al. 2020.1) observed in galactic, quiescent red supergiants (RSGs), which are considered the likely stellar type responsible for SNe II (Smartt 2009). In extreme cases, some RSGs, such as VY Canis Majoris, are estimated to be losing mass at enhanced rates of ∼10⁻³ M_⊙ yr⁻¹ (Smith et al. 2009.1), which could match some lower mass-loss estimates derived from CMFGEN modeling. However, VY CMa is more massive (∼25–30 M_⊙) than typical SN II RSG progenitors and contains a much more extended CSM (∼2 × 10¹⁶ cm). Overall, this deviation between theory and observation suggests that some RSGs must undergo enhanced mass loss in the final years before core-collapse. Furthermore, the identification and modeling of photoionization features in other objects such as Type IIb SN 2013cu (Gal-Yam et al. 2014.1), Calcium-strong SN 2019ehk (Jacobson-Galán et al. 2020.2), Type Ibn SN 2010al (Pastorello et al. 2015.1), and electron-capture SN candidate 2018zd (Hiramatsu et al. 2021.3) represent a burgeoning technique for constraining the progenitor properties in a variety of SN subtypes beyond normal SNe II.

Indirect evidence of enhanced mass loss in SNe II progenitors is also shown through the non-LTE modeling of multiband and bolometric SN optical light curves. Based on recent studies, the presence of dense, confined CSM around an RSG progenitor at the time of explosion manifests in a few key light-curve properties. First, SBO into dense CSM can produce a longer-lasting, and thus potentially easier-to-observe, as well as more luminous SBO signature, peaking in UV bands of the spectral energy distribution (SED; Chevalier & Irwin 2011; Moriya et al. 2011.1; Haynie & Piro 2021.4). Modeling of early-time SNe II light curves also revealed the need for local CSM (r ≲ 10¹⁵ cm) in order to reproduce the rapid rise time and brighter emission at peak observed in some objects (Dessart et al. 2017.2; Moriya et al. 2017.3; Morozova et al. 2017.4, 2018) as well as the long plateau duration, delayed photometric decline rate, and H I line profile morphology (Hillier & Dessart 2019).

An additional observational probe of stellar behavior in the late-stage evolution of core-collapse SN progenitors is the detection of precursor emission prior to the terminal explosion. Optical flux has been observed as the precursor to a number of Type IIn SNe (e.g., SN 2009ip, PTF 10bjb, SN 2010mc, PTF 10weh, SN 2011ht, PTF 12cxj, LSQ13zm, iPTF13z, SN 2016bdu, and SN 2018cnf; Ofek et al. 2013b, 2014.3; Tartaglia et al. 2016.3; Nyholm et al. 2017.5; Pastorello et al. 2018.1, 2019.1), which show persistent spectral signatures of CSM interaction for all of their evolution, as well as H-poor, interacting Type Ibn supernovae (SNe Ibn; Foley et al. 2007; Pastorello et al. 2007.1). The months-long, pre-SN flux observed in such SNe is typically found in the range of M ≈ −13 to −17 mag and can occur anywhere from years to days prior to explosion. These eruptive events can also repeat in the years before explosion (e.g., SN 2009ip; e.g., Mauerhan et al. 2013.1; Ofek et al. 2013.2a; Pastorello et al. 2013.3; Margutti et al. 2014.4), or they can be one-time events, some of which are sustained for hundreds of days before core-collapse. In a recent sample study of precursor emission in Zwicky Transient Facility (ZTF)-discovered SNe, Strotjohann et al. (2021.5) found that ∼25% of SNe IIn have detectable pre-SN flux for ∼months prior to explosion associated with the ejection of ∼1 M_⊙ of material into the local progenitor environment. Unfortunately, no SNe II with photoionization spectra were detected in their search for precursor emission from massive star progenitors.

In recent years, there have been a number of theoretical explanations put forth to explain eruptive or heightened mass loss in core-collapse SN progenitors that could then be responsible for detectable precursor emission and/or photoionization features in early-time spectra. Enhanced mass loss observed in these progenitor stars cannot be explained by line-driven winds, and thus more exotic scenarios are needed to drive off a considerable amount of material from the stellar surface. In lower-mass RSGs (∼8–12 M_⊙), it is possible that nuclear flashes that ignite dynamical burning of oxygen, neon, or silicon could lead to the ejection of the outer layers of the stellar envelope in the final years to months before explosion (Woosley et al. 1980; Meakin & Arnett 2007.2; Arnett et al. 2009.2; Dessart et al. 2010; Woosley & Heger 2015.2). Alternatively, late-stage burning phases can induce gravity waves that propagate outwards and inject energy into the stellar envelope, leading to eruptions of ∼1M_⊙ worth of material in the final months before explosion (Quataert & Shiode 2012; Shiode & Quataert 2014.5; Fuller 2017.6; Wu & Fuller 2021.6). Additionally, super-Eddington continuum-driven winds can be induced at the stellar surface during late-stage nuclear burning, which can then cause enhanced mass loss and detectable pre-SN emission (Shaviv 2001a, 2001.1b; Ofek et al. 2016.4). However, this mechanism is unlikely to be present in RSGs and is more suited to supermassive (M_ZAMS ≳ 30 M_⊙) luminous blue variable (LBV) stars.

In this paper we present, analyze, and model multiwavelength observations (X-ray to radio) of the Type II SN 2020tlf (shown in Figure 1), discovered by the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) on 2020 September 16 (MJD 59108.72) in the c-band filter (Tonry et al. 2020.3). SN 2020tlf has an ATLAS discovery apparent magnitude of 15.89 mag and is located at α = 14h40m10fs03, \(\small \delta =+42^\circ 46^{\prime} 39\buildrel{\prime\prime}\over{.} 45\). As shown in Section 2, the Pan-STARRS1 (PS1) telescope detected significant pre-explosion flux for ∼130 days prior to the discovery date reported above by ATLAS. We define the time of first light as the phase at which the observed magnitudes increased beyond the threshold of the pre-explosion PS1 detections. This results in a time of first light of MJD 59098.7 ± 1.5 days (2020 September 6).

Figure 1. PS1/YSE g-band explosion image of Type II SN 2020tlf in host galaxy NGC 5731.

SN 2020tlf was classified as a young SN IIn with “flash-ionization” spectral features by Dimitriadis et al. (2020.4) and Balcon (2020.5) on 2020 September 17. Following its classification, SN 2020tlf became Sun-constrained for ground-based observatories. Once visible again at +95 days since first light, spectroscopic observations of SN 2020tlf revealed that the narrow, photoionized emission features had disappeared (unlike typical SNe IIn) and the SN had evolved into a normal Type II–like object.

SN 2020tlf is located \(\small 9\buildrel{\prime\prime}\over{.}3\) east and \(\small 6\buildrel{\prime\prime}\over{.}9\) south of the nucleus of the SABcd galaxy NGC 5731. In this paper, we use a redshift z = 0.008463 ± 0.0003 (Oosterloo & Shostak 1993), which corresponds to a distance of 36.8 ± 1.29 Mpc for standard Λ cold dark matter cosmology (H₀ = 70 km s⁻¹ Mpc⁻¹, Ω_M = 0.27, Ω_Λ = 0.73); unfortunately no redshift-independent distance is available. Possible uncertainties on the distance could be the choice of H₀ and/or peculiar velocities of the host galaxy; the uncertainty on the former can, for example, contribute to ≲5% uncertainty of the SN luminosity. The main parameters of SN 2020tlf and its host galaxy are displayed in Table 1. This paper represents the first installment in a series of studies that will focus on constraining the “final moments” of massive star evolution through the derivation of progenitor properties from precursor activity and “flash” spectroscopy.

Jacobson-Galán, W. V.; Dessart, L.; Jones, D. O.; Margutti, R.; Coppejans, D. L.; Dimitriadis, G.; Foley, R. J.; Kilpatrick, C. D.; Matthews, D. J.; Rest, S.; Terreran, G.; Aleo, P. D.; Auchettl, K.; Blanchard, P. K.; Coulter, D. A.; Davis, K. W.; de Boer, T. J. L.; DeMarchi, L.; Drout, M. R.; Earl, N.; Gagliano, A.; Gall, C.; Hjorth, J.; Huber, M. E.; Ibik, A. L.; Milisavljevic, D.; Pan, Y.-C.; Rest, A.; Ridden-Harper, R.; Rojas-Bravo, C.; Siebert, M. R.; Smith, K. W.; Taggart, K.; Tinyanont, S.; Wang, Q.; Zenati, Y.
Final Moments. I. Precursor Emission, Envelope Inflation, and Enhanced Mass Loss Preceding the Luminous Type II Supernova 2020tlf
The Astrophysical Journal (2022) 924(1), 15. DOI: 10.3847/1538-4357/ac3f3a

Copyright: © 2022 The authors.
Published by IOP Publishing. Open access.
Reprinted under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International license (CC BY 4.0)

The so-called “fine-tuning” argument relies on an unexamined assumption that the universe was deliberately arranged to make human life possible. In reality, the universe is overwhelmingly hostile to life as we know it, and the conditions in which we evolved represent a narrow and fleeting local anomaly rather than a cosmic design. Events such as the death of a red supergiant in SN 2020tlf remind us that the universe is not a safe, benign habitat fine-tuned for us; it is a volatile and dangerous place in which life clings to a thin layer on a small planet for as long as conditions happen to be right.

The argument also misrepresents probability. Creationists arbitrarily assign fantastically small probabilities to the existence of physical constants without demonstrating either the range of possible values or access to other universes to compare them with. In the absence of alternatives, the probability of these constants being as they are is not small at all — it is certain. And the anthropic principle means that, of all the possible universes, we can only ever find ourselves in one where intelligent life can emerge. That is not evidence of divine design; it is a simple statement of logical necessity.

In short, the fine-tuning argument collapses under even mild scrutiny. It confuses improbability with inevitability, parochial human perspectives with cosmic reality, and philosophical conjecture with scientific evidence. The universe is not fine-tuned for us; we are fine-tuned by evolution to survive in a vanishingly small corner of it — temporarily.

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