H3N2 virus.
Despite appearances H3N2 is not closely related to SARS-CoV-2 but simultaneous infection with both can be especially dangerous
Creationism's malevolent designer is not one to be defeated easily, as we saw with its response to the anti-SARS-CoV-2 virus vaccines produced by medical science to help control the COVid-19 pandemic, where it came up with all manner of variant to get around the social distancing measures and the vaccines, and we're still not through it yet despite the political pressure to return to pre-pandemic ways.
The equivalent of a jumbo jet full of people still dies from COVID-19 every day in the USA. Can you imagine the outcry if a real jumbo jet crashed killing everyone on board every day? How many people would continue to fly and demand the government stop whatever they're doing to prevent these crashes?
Now, though, with the sensible measures like social distances, wearing face coverings and regular hand cleansing with alcohol jells just about being ignored, Creationism's divine malevolence has the ground prepared for a double whammy.
A double whammy?
The same measures that were intended to mitigate the effects of the pandemic in 2020 and 2021 were also very effective against the influenza viruses that normally do the rounds in the winter months, with the result that the numbers dying or being made seriously ill during 2020 and 2021 were very significantly down on a normal year and the number of people being infected and building up their natural immunity also fell.
In addition, as complacency spreads and less people bother with COVID-19 boosters, what 'herd immunity' there was is also diminishing fast. A recent study in Barcelona showed that, even with a vaccine and having had an infection, most people's antibody level will be virtually undetectable in 12 months, unless boosted with further vaccinations.
Another recent study identified a new sub-strain of the SARS-CoV-2 omicron variant (BA.2.75.2) which can evade most of the antibodies provided by infection and vaccination. We don't know which new strain will produce the next wave, because it depends on several factors such as infectivity, incubation period and asymptomatic transmission, but BA.2.75.2 is a good candidate
Medical science is researching vaccines that are effective across all variants of SARS-CoV-2, and which give permanent, or at least long-lived immunity. Until then, all we have is the vaccines that are modified each year for the new variants, much like the annual flu vaccines, in an arms race with Creationism's malevolent designer, allegedly.
So, with its new strain of SARS-CoV-2 waiting in the wings, a new strain of influenza (a variant of H3N2) about to hit us, and a population with reduced immunity this winter is set to see Creationism's malevolent best friend get its revenge and start killing people with a vengeance. An infection with both flu and Covid-19 being particularly dangerous.
In this article from The Conversation, Dr. Michael Head, Senior Research Fellow in Global Health, University of Southampton, Hampshire, UK spells out the threat we in the UK are facing, and of course pandemics are no respecters of national borders. His article is reprinted here under a Creative Commons licence, reformatted for stylistic consistency. The original article can be read here.
Flu is set for a big comeback now COVID restrictions are lifted – here’s what you need to know
Credit: TT THAILAND/Shutterstock
Michael Head, University of Southampton
The flu seasons of 2020 and 2021 were mild, mostly thanks to measures people took against COVID, such as wearing masks, social distancing and using copious amounts of hand gel. 2022, however, looks like a whole different kettle of fish.
The southern hemisphere – where flu season starts – has been hit hard. Australia, for example, has had the worst flu season in five years, and it has been hammered by COVID, too. This year has been the first real opportunity for both viruses to circulate freely as all COVID restrictions have now been lifted.
It’s strongly advised that people in the UK get the flu vaccine and ensure they are up to date with their COVID vaccine boosters. Scientists aren’t sure how these viruses will dovetail, but evidence suggests that being infected with both viruses simultaneously greatly increases the risk of severe disease and death.
About 33 million people in the UK are eligible for a free flu vaccine, including those aged 50 or older, pregnant women, people in residential care, and frontline healthcare workers. There is also a nasal-spray vaccine for children aged two years and older, with many vaccine rollouts delivered in schools.
The flu vaccine is available as a nasal spray for children aged two and over.
Credit: Norma Jean Gargasz / Alamy Stock Photo
Great pressure on the NHS
Flu usually has an “R number” between one and two, meaning that, on average, each infected person will infect one or two people. This level of flu transmission is significant.
In the UK, across the winters of 2017-18 and 2018-19, there were 46,215 and 39,670 flu-related hospital admissions respectively. And, as of early September 2022, there were 590 daily hospital admissions with COVID, with those numbers on the rise.
NHS trusts are usually under greater pressure during the winter. Yet already in the autumn, several health services report that their capacities are limited. Derriford Hospital in Plymouth had waits of up to 72 hours for admission from A&E, while the East of England Ambulance Service recently came close to declaring a “major incident”.
Nottingham Hospitals Trust declared a “critical incident” on September 29. The legacy of Boris Johnson’s pandemic governance, with higher case and death rates than most comparable countries, has created further pressures across the health service, including hospitals and primary care. This does not bode well heading into a winter when there is a risk of high levels of both flu and COVID.
Despite the continuous circulating of new variants and sub-variants, the COVID vaccine continues to provide high protection against severe disease and death. The strains of flu also change each winter and are, to some extent, unpredictable. So flu vaccine effectiveness is variable, but typically between 40% and 60%.
Data from Australia provides an early estimate of around 40% effectiveness from their 2022 flu season. However, this is still an important level of protection, with hospitalisation rates among vaccinated people typically much lower than in unvaccinated populations.
The Australian data is important for people in the UK and elsewhere in the northern hemisphere. Surveillance agencies look at circulating virus types in the southern hemisphere, and use that data to decide the likely impact in their own countries, including the manufacturing of the flu vaccine. Australian virology reports show the vast majority of their laboratory-confirmed cases were a strain of influenza called H3N2.
The UK Health Security Agency says this year’s flu jab is a good match for this strain.
Other measures
With the added pressures already on the NHS, a high vaccine uptake will be important. But wearing a mask can also help reduce the spread of flu and COVID. Meeting outdoors or opening a window to improve ventilation can also help to prevent new chains of transmission and lessen the likelihood of infecting vulnerable people.
The UK winter of 2022-23 will be a very good time to try to stay well, leaving some healthcare capacity for emergencies and vulnerable people.
Michael Head, Senior Research Fellow in Global Health, University of Southampton
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